A year-on-year decrease of 16%! The U.S. photovoltaic market will "shrink" significantly in 2022

Published on: 2023-03-10 16:39:06 Author: Compiler: Xinrui

Source: solarpowerworldonline

The study shows that the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in the United States will be 20.2GW in 2022, a decrease of 16% compared with 2021. This is likely due to the US Department of Commerce's investigation into new anti-circumvention duties and US Customs and Border Protection's seizure of PV equipment under the so-called Forced Labor Prevention Act.

According to the "U.S. Photovoltaic Market Insights 2022 Review" survey report recently released by the American Photovoltaic Industry Association and consulting agency Wood Mackenzie, the installed capacity of utility-scale photovoltaic systems installed in the United States in 2022 will be 11.8GW, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The lowest level in the photovoltaic industry since before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. Installed commercial PV and community PV systems also fell by 6% and 16%, respectively. Grid connection delays for photovoltaic projects continue to limit growth in various segments in the United States.

The report's forecast for the development of the photovoltaic market in the United States this year and next year shows that by 2027, the photovoltaic market in the United States will grow by 19% per year and will fully recover.

Abigail Ross Hopper, President and CEO of the American Photovoltaic Industry Association, said: "PV industry manufacturers are actively shifting their supply chains to ensure that photovoltaic systems installed in the United States are not related to forced labor. acted and built a stronger domestic manufacturing base, but the ongoing threat of high tariffs hampers the potential of the historic Cut Inflation Act."

Installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in the United States and market segment forecasts from 2020 to 2033

The report highlights a vision for the U.S. PV market over the next 10 years, with forecasts based on PV module supply and domestic manufacturing, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) guidance, and PV industry-specific factors such as labor availability, tax fair supply and Grid connection schedule) high deployment and low deployment scenarios.

Over the next five years, the total difference between the high and low deployment forecasts for the US PV market is 40GW. In the base case, the United States is expected to install more than 570GW of photovoltaic systems in the next ten years, increasing the cumulative installed photovoltaic system installed capacity in the United States from the current 141GW to more than 700GW in 2033.

Michelle Davis, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report, said: "While 2022 will be a difficult year for the U.S. PV industry, we do expect some supply chain issues to ease, driving growth rates in 2023 41%. Our high and low deployment scenarios help the PV industry gauge potential outcomes at a time when the PV industry faces significant uncertainty. In both cases, there is about 20GW of upside or Downside risk, same as installed capacity of PV systems in 2022."

In 2022, residential photovoltaic installed capacity in the United States will increase by 40%, and 6% of households in the United States now have residential photovoltaic systems. By 2030, this figure is expected to grow to 15%.

In 2022, a total of 783MW of residential, commercial and community photovoltaic systems in the United States will be equipped with energy storage systems, setting a new record. By 2027, 33% of residential photovoltaic systems and 20% of commercial and community photovoltaic systems will be equipped with battery energy storage systems.

For the third year in a row, California, Texas, and Florida were the top three states in the U.S. for new installed PV system capacity. California reclaimed the top spot after Texas took the lead in 2021.

Despite supply chain constraints slowing the development of the U.S. PV market, PV systems installed in 2022 still account for 50% of all new generation capacity. Today, photovoltaic power generation in the United States accounts for only 5% of its total electricity generation.